Forecasting the Labor Market Prospects of Low-Skilled Americans

Mar 22, 2005 | by
  • Description

This paper forecasts the post-recession labor market experiences of less-skilled men and women. It uses empirical relationships and the Bush Administration's 2004 and 2005 forecasts of the national unemployment rate to predict the employment-population ratios, employment rates, and labor force participation rates of Americans with the least skills. It also describes the econometric models estimated in the paper; presents estimates of the relationship between aggregate demand and the participation, employment, and unemployment of young non-enrolled Americans and 10-year forecasts of their labor market outcomes; and discusses findings and their implications.