2020 Post-Mortem Part Two: The American Dream Voter

Dec 14, 2021
  • Description

Equis has been conducting a post-mortem of the Latino vote in the 2020 election, specifically geared toward (a) documenting where Trump and the GOP made gains with Latino voters (and where they didn't), and (b) trying to explain that movement.

In Part One (published April 1, 2021), we attempted to document the nature and composition of the gains that Donald Trump made with a small subset of Hispanic voters. Here in Part Two, we use new research, and a fresh look at other datasets, to try to address the WHY and the WHAT NOW.

What can we understand about the relative importance of various factors in driving the shift? Of the leading theories out in the world, which do the data suggest were especially meaningful? What explains the bigger shifts in South TX and South FL? And what of these dynamics will carry over into current policy debates, or the elections in 2022 and 2024?