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Ukraine Russia Crisis: Terrorism Briefing

March 2, 2022

On 24 February 2022, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine. Figure 1 highlights that the invasion comes after a decade of deteriorating relations between Russia, Ukraine and the West.This brief covers several aspects relating to the current Ukrainian war, including the frequency of past acts of terrorism in Russia, Ukraine and Georgia and covers likely future scenarios. It also analyses cyberattacks on Ukraine over the last decade and lead up to the current war.The main finding is that terrorism increases with the intensity of conflict. Both the Georgian conflict in 2008 and the Ukrainian conflict of 2014 saw substantial spikes in terrorist activity around the wars, and as the current war intensifies increased terrorist activity should be expected.Secondly, cyberattacks on Ukraine have markedly increased over the last decade, and especially in the months and weeks leading up to the war. Further, cyberattacks have the potential to unintentionally spill over into other countries because of global connectivity, the effects of which have been seen on numerous occasions. As cyberattacks by nefarious actors are a recent phenomenon, and given the difficulty in the attribution of such attacks, the demarcation between what constitutes a cyberattack, cyber warfare or cyber terrorism are unclear. Regardless, this briefing looks at the broad phenomena of cyberattacks in Ukraine to offer background on recent events.

Positive Peace Report 2022: Analysing the factors that build, predict and sustain peace

January 20, 2022

Peace is much more than the absence of violence. Positive Peace describes the attitudes, structures and institutions that underpin and sustain peaceful societies. The Institute has developed a conceptual framework, known as the Pillars of Peace, that outlines a system of eight factors that work together to build positive peace. Derived from a statistical analysis of over 4,000 datasets, the Pillars of Peace provides a roadmap to overcome adversity and conflict, and to build lasting peace.

A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

December 19, 2019

At the core of the heightened tensions between Russia and the West is the contest for influence over the countries physically located between them (referred to here as the in-between states): first and foremost Ukraine, but also Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. While the relationship between Russia and the West was far from ideal before 2014, it was the Ukraine crisis that fundamentally changed that relationship, ruling out any remaining hopes for partnership and effectively institutionalizing a confrontational dynamic. The contest over the in-between states has taken a significant toll on these countries. The most extreme case is the war in Ukraine, in which over 13,000 people have died; other regional conflicts have occurred in Moldova, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, and the competition has also disrupted regional trade patterns and set back the process of reform and domestic transformation in these states. In short, all of the states involved—Russia, the countries of the West, and the in-between states—are less secure and prosperous as a result.

International Scholarship Graduates Influencing Social and Economic Development at Home: The Role of Alumni Networks in Georgia and Moldova

October 1, 2016

Many students from low- and middle-income countries seek scholarship support to pursue higher education overseas. Often scholarship programs mandate that recipients "give back" to their home countries following their studies so scholars "apply" their experiences to aid their countries of origin. In this comparative qualitative study, 40 Georgian and Moldovan scholarship alumni who studied in the United States were asked how alumni networks assist their ability to influence social and economic change in their home countries. The comparative findings point to the value of alumni networks in terms of graduates backing each other's activism projects and feeling part of a community of like-minded individuals who seek change. Where these networks were not present, alumni desired a supportive association to assist in their attempts to influence reform. Findings suggest the development of alumni networks facilitate individual scholarship participants' efforts to "give back" to their countries of origin.

Evaluation of the My Rights My Voice Programme: Synthesis report

August 22, 2016

'My Rights, My Voice' (MRMV) is a multi-country programme implemented by Oxfam GB, Oxfam Novib, Oxfam Québec and their partners with the aim of engaging marginalized children and youth in their rights to health and education services. The programme has been implemented in eight countries: Afghanistan, Georgia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Pakistan, Tanzania and Vietnam.This evaluation aimed to systematically analyse the actual outcomes of the programme and its underlying working mechanisms against the proposed outcomes and MRMV's theory of change.Oxfam's management response to the evaluation report is included as a separate document.

Education, Skills and Labor Market Outcomes: Results from Large-Scale Adult Skills Surveys in Urban Areas in 12 Countries

May 5, 2016

In recent years, skills development has become a priority among developed and developing countries alike. The World Bank Group, in its quest to end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity, has joined efforts with countries and multilateral development partners to ensure that individuals have access to quality education and training opportunities and that employers can find the skills they need to operate. The skills towards employability and productivity (STEP) skills measurement program is part of the World Bank's portfolio of analytical products on skills. The STEP program consists of two survey instruments that collect information on the supply and demand for skills in urban areas: a household survey and an employer survey. STEP has been implemented in waves, the first surveys being implemented in seven countries in 2012 (Bolivia, Colombia, Ghana, Lao Peoples Democratic Republic (PDR), Ukraine, Vietnam, and the Yunnan Province in China), and the second in five countries in 2013 (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kenya, and Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of (FYR)). The data presented in this publication correspond to these countries. It illustrates the similarities and differences among groups that have completed different education levels on a wide range of issues and outcomes. Section one analyzes the trajectory of skills acquisition: participation in early childhood education programs, educational attainment by gender, and participation in training and apprenticeship programs. Section two explores background conditions associated with educational attainment, including the socioeconomic status of survey respondents at age 15, the educational attainment of their parents, their households' asset levels, their health (as expressed by the presence of chronic illness), and their overall satisfaction with life. Section three covers cognitive skills: writing, numeracy, and reading (which is also evaluated through a direct reading assessment). Section four covers job-relevant skills, which are task-specific and which respondents possess or use on the job; and section five covers socio-emotional skills, using established metrics to measure personality and behavior. Section six covers the status of survey respondents in the labor market: whether they are employed, unemployed, or inactive.

Women's Fund in Georgia, Annual Report 2014

July 13, 2015

The fund's mission is to empower women in Georgia for social change through providing financial and technical support, capacity building and development of feminist philanthropy.

Civil Society Voices: How the EU Should Engage Its Eastern Neighbours

May 1, 2015

The EU's "eastern neighbourhood" is an increasingly complicated and contested space. The challenge of Russia's resurgence and regional elites' resistance to reform are forcing the EU to reevaluate its policies.With the launch of its Eastern Partnership six years ago, the EU was ready to offer its neighbors to the east—Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—integration into the EU market, mobility of people, and close political ties in exchange for rule of law and democratic and economic reforms. Today, it questions whether this policy has secured its strategic interests and political influence.The Eastern Partnership reinforced domestic constituencies for change in at least three partners—Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—that in 2014 signed association agreements. It has not lost the potential to contribute to democratic processes and support reformers in the other three: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus. The Eastern Partnership remains the EU's most effective foreign policy instrument to build accountable and stable institutions and states, and uphold the EU's commitment to its neighbors' sovereignty and right to make independent foreign policy choices.This policy paper—the result of extensive discussions with experts and civil society leaders—highlights local concerns and expectations about the EU's role in the region and its support for stability and democracy. As the EU rethinks its policies in the area, this paper offers recommendations on how to make the Eastern Partnership more effective and relevant to people, societies, and government, and to secure the EU's interests in an increasingly polarized and unstable region.

Accountability Review in Georgia: Promoting children and youth as agents of change - My Rights, My Voice

December 3, 2014

This accountability review is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2013/14. The report documents the findings from a review carried out in May 2014 which examines the degree to which Oxfam meets its own standards for accountability.The 'Promoting children and youth as agents of change' project in Georgia is part of the global programme 'My Rights, My Voice' and focuses on child and youth rights to receive education and health care. The project has been implemented in seven other countries, and in Georgia since 2011, by three partner organizations. The purpose of the project is to promote child and youth health rights in two regions of Georgia - Samegrelo and Shida Kartli - directly benefiting young people between 14 and 18 years, family doctors and local civil society organisations (CSOs).This assignment examined accountability to partners and communities in terms of transparency, feedback/listening and, participation - three key dimensions of Accountability for Oxfam. In addition it asked questions around partnership practices, staff attitudes, and satisfaction (how useful the project is to people and how wisely the money on this project has been spent) where appropriate.Read more about the Oxfam Effectiveness Reviews. 

Women's Fund in Georgia, Annual Report 2013

September 11, 2014

The fund's mission is to empower women in Georgia for social change through providing financial and technical support, capacity building and development of feminist philanthropy.

Data Matters: Data-Driven Policy Research Projects from Central and Eastern Europe

July 15, 2014

Since 2010, the Open Society Think Tank Fund has supported projects that propose new uses of data for advocacy and target non-traditional stakeholders, to develop challenging and complementary information sets for broader application in the policy sphere, and to use data sets to challenge commonly accepted facts in a given policy field. The Fund assisted think tanks with bringing these data sources to light; enhancing their usefulness by expansion, maintenance, and use of this information; integrating such enhancements into their daily routines; and promoting a new culture of presenting policy research findings and thus reaching untapped audiences.The Data Matters presents highlights and successes of projects supported between 2010 and 2013, illustrating how data matters in the everyday lives of citizens of many countries. This portfolio is offered as inspiration for members of NGOs, think tanks, and advocacy organizations who are focusing on using data for informing discussion on policy cha

Nations in Transit 2014

June 12, 2014

This is the the 18th edition of Freedom House's comprehensive report on post-communist democratic governance -- highlights recent setbacks to democracy across Eurasia and the Balkans, as well as in Central Europe. Russia served as the model and inspiration for policies that have led to an uninterrupted retreat from free institutions throughout Eurasia and in 2013 brought a new and alarming level of repression. In Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and several other countries, civil society responded with remarkable resistance to repressive governance. The year also featured improved elections and peaceful transfers of power in Kosovo, Albania, and Georgia.