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New Jersey Public-Private Sector Wage Differentials: 1970 to 2004

November 20, 2006

This paper, by Heldrich Center Chief Economist William M. Rodgers III, uses Decennial Census and Current Population Survey data to provide a rigorous comparison of New Jersey's public and private sector wages.

New Jersey's Link to the Global Markets: The Warehouse Industry

June 14, 2006

This report examines the warehouse industry and its role in the Port of New York and New Jersey and Essex County.

Male White-Black Wage Gaps, 1979-1994: A Distributional Analysis

September 7, 2005

This paper examines whether the general growth in wage inequality that occurred during the 1980s explains the growth in the white-black wage gap. The paper develops a skill-specific decomposition that measures inequality growth's contribution to the wage gap's growth among white and black men with similar skill levels. The paper shows that if general wage inequality growth is an important contributor to the overall wage gap's growth during the 1980s, its greatest impact is among middle and upper skilled workers. For racial wage gaps among young high school and college graduates, the contribution of general wage inequality growth is greatest among those whites and blacks with the least and greatest skills.

Black Workers Need More than an Economic Boom

March 22, 2005

This paper looks at the reasons the absolute and relative gains that African Americans made during the 1990s economic boom were both less than hoped for and fragile in the period of economic decline that followed. The paper also looks at the public policies that would be necessary to sustain the gains that African Americans are likely to make during the next economic expansion.

The Pitfalls of Using a Child Support Schedule Based on Outdated Data

March 22, 2005

A strong rationale for updating child support guidelines arises from changes over time in the measurement of expenditures on children, as well as changes in the empirical relationship between expenditures on children and the income of parents. Such changes affect the accuracy of the numerics upon which states' child support guidelines are based. This study evaluates an alternative child support guideline that was proposed for Virginia and draws lessons for other states that similarly base their guidelines on older survey data. Regression results show that over time, the child expenditure and household income relationship has changed considerably. Furthermore, the largest increases in expenditures attributable to children have occurred for lower- and middle-income households.

Forecasting the Labor Market Prospects of Low-Skilled Americans

March 22, 2005

This paper forecasts the post-recession labor market experiences of less-skilled men and women. It uses empirical relationships and the Bush Administration's 2004 and 2005 forecasts of the national unemployment rate to predict the employment-population ratios, employment rates, and labor force participation rates of Americans with the least skills. It also describes the econometric models estimated in the paper; presents estimates of the relationship between aggregate demand and the participation, employment, and unemployment of young non-enrolled Americans and 10-year forecasts of their labor market outcomes; and discusses findings and their implications.

The Economic Impact of Childcare in Middlesex County, New Jersey

March 22, 2005

The childcare industry plays an important role in Middlesex County, New Jersey's economy, generating revenues, employing workers, and allowing parents to be productive members of the labor force. This report describes the economic impact of the regulated childcare industry in Middlesex County. It also offers recommendations for how businesses, government, and childcare providers can increase the effectiveness of the childcare industry in the County.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Distribution and Type of Unemployment

October 29, 2004

This working paper by William M. Rodgers III employs two widely used approaches to estimate the effects of monetary policy on seven measures of unemployment. Evidence from recursive vector autoregressions and autoregressive distributed lag models that use information on the Federal Reserve's contractionary initiatives indicate that the weeks of unemployment distribution (e.g., less than five weeks) is significantly altered. The number of unemployed increases at all segments of the distribution. However, as a share of total unemployment, the increase is greatest among those with 15 weeks of unemployment or more. The number of job losers on both temporary and permanent layoff rise, with over two-thirds of the increase among permanent job losers. The number of reentrants into the labor force, new entrants, and part-time workers that become unemployed also rises. The share of the unemployed that are job losers rises, while the shares of reentrant, new entrant, and part-time workers that become unemployed falls.

Food Security and the Federal Minimum Wage

October 29, 2004

This working paper, by William M. Rodgers III, Hanley S. Chiang, and Bruce W. Klein, estimates the extent to which increases in the U.S. federal minimum wage in October 1996 and September 1997 improved the ability of households to be food secure -- that is, to purchase for their members an adequate supply of nutritional and safe foods. First, the authors show that the two increases significantly altered the hourly wage distribution of householders (principal person in a household). The shifts were greatest among household heads that are minority, single parents, and household heads with no more than a high school diploma. Even after controlling for the link between the 1990s economic expansion and food security, the October 1996 and September 1997 increases in the federal minimum wage raised food security and reduced hunger, particularly in low-income households where householders had completed no more than a high school degree or were a single parent.

The 1990s Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities?

May 3, 2004

This article, which ran in the Harvard University Journal of African American Public Policy explores the idea that the significant income gains achieved by American workers during the 1990s economic boom may be jeopardized if government fails to enact balanced policies on taxes, education and job training.

The 1990s Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities? - Slides

May 3, 2004

These Powerpoint slides are meant to be viewed along with the Harvard Jornal of African American Public Policy article, "The 1990's Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities?"

1990s Economic Boom: Another Period of Missed Opportunities? A Presentation by William Rodgers

April 30, 2004

This presentation explores the idea that the significant income gains achieved by American workers during the 1990s economic boom may be jeopardized if government fails to enact balanced policies on taxes, education and job training.