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Proceedings and Observations from a Climate Risks Event

December 1, 2015

In March 2015, in Delhi, India, CNA held a game and scenario-planning session in support of the Skoll Global Threats Fund and the United Kingdom's Foreign and Commonwealth Office. During the event, we explored the future effects of climate change as they relate to security around the world. Participants included renowned scientists, security experts, diplomats, and retired military personnel from Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Based on game play and discussions, we identified four major findings: (1) climate change may increase nationalism and policies of internalization in developed countries; (2) large-scale climate-induced migration may impact a country's international policies, economic situation, and defining cultural attributes, changing the way they participate in global commons; (3) competition for limited resources may increase as a source of friction and shape policies and international relations; and (4) climate change technologies are not viewed in the same way by all countries, and there is potential for an emerging disparity between regions over the consensus and control of these technologies. This document gives an overview of the event and discusses why we identified each of these factors as a security risk that could result from climate change.

Bone Dry and Flooding Soon

October 1, 2014

CNA Corporation, sponsored by the Skoll Global Threats Fund, executed two instances of a political decision-making game designed to explore informationsharing and cooperation over water on the Indian subcontinent. The game explored how Bangladesh, China, India, and Pakistan manage water resources between the Brahmaputra, Indus, and Ganges rivers. The first instance of the game took place in January 2014 in the Washington, DC area, and was played primarily by American subject matter experts. The second instance of the game was held in June 2014 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and was played by retired senior officials with policy and military backgrounds, and water experts from all four South Asian countries. This document summarizes the second (regional) instance of the game, identifies strategic insights from the regional instance, and compares the two instances deriving further insights based on that comparison.