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What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count? The Role of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission

November 8, 2019

This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia's October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia's vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales's first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.

Life After Debt in Puerto Rico: How Many More Lost Decades?

July 18, 2017

As Puerto Rico enters the legal debt restructuring process, this paper examines the future prospects for an economy that has had no growth over the last ten years — a lost decade. The facts indicate that the fiscal plan approved by Puerto Rico's Financial Oversight Board will not lead to an economic recovery in the foreseeable future and that another lost decade, or worse, is a much more likely outcome. Nor will the proposed restructuring satisfy creditors, who may then further impede economic recovery by taking legal action in an attempt to collect the full value of the bonds they hold. The paper also notes the recent historical and structural causes of the economy's decline, which led to the debt crisis; and that these, too, will need to be addressed if Puerto Rico is ever to have a sustainable recovery.

Stick Shift: Autonomous Vehicles, Driving Jobs, and the Future of Work

March 1, 2017

More than 30 companies say they are just a few years away from introducing autonomous vehicles to the mass market. While it is unknown what the ultimate impact of autonomous vehicles will have on jobs, there is a possibility that there could be a relatively rapid transition. This is likely to cause significant pain in a number of communities, as well as exacerbate the losses of "good jobs," a category that includes some driving jobs. It would be prudent to strengthen our safety net and labor market to absorb a shock from autonomous-vehicle technology, as well as ensure that autonomous-vehicle technology is safe and reliable. This will be a challenge, given the recent change in the party controlling the executive branch, and its new secretary of transportation. Strengthening the unemployment insurance system, improving apprenticeship programs, making higher education more affordable, and committing to full employment can not only minimize the harm to displaced workers, but can provide them with opportunities that lead to fulfilling and economically sustaining jobs. This is good policy whether or not autonomous vehicles are around the corner.